Pre-announcement and call for abstracts

EFSA and EPPO are to hold a joint workshop in Parma on Modelling in plant health – how can models support risk assessment of plant pests and decision-making?

The risk assessment of plant pests is based on estimating their potential to enter the risk assessment area, to establish there, to spread and to have an impact on plants. Models on pathways, spatial distribution and potential abundance of pests in the risk assessment area can support risk assessment and the development and evaluation of management schemes. Models can also be used to estimate the impact of plant pests on crop yield and quality as well as on the environment.

The main objective of this workshop is to explore the application of models in plant health risk assessment and how risk assessment models may support decision-making in plant health.  

The workshop will include presentations from keynote speakers and participants, as well as poster sessions. There will be sufficient time for discussion.

Workshop themes

• Modelling tools in plant health: principles, applications and examples
  • Quantitative pathway analysis.   
  • Models for potential establishment.
  • Spread models.
  • Models for the evaluation of impacts.
  • Holistic risk assessment models.
• Framework for quantitative risk assessment
  • Databases and modelling.
  • How can modelling support quantitative risk assessment?
  • Challenges of modelling in the plant health context.
• How can modelling address the needs of risk managers and stakeholders?
  • How can models contribute to the development and evaluation of phytosanitary measures?
  • How can the expected efficacy of risk reduction options, such as buffer zones between infected and free areas, be explored?
  • Communication of the results of risk assessment models.